2020 is a watershed year in time for the screen industry because of COVID and the Level 4 lockdown we endured.
New Zealand On Air’s latest ‘Where Are The Audiences’ research was conducted during May and June, when we had come out of Level 4 and were in Levels 2 and 1.
Although potentially skewed because of COVID and possibly having an irreversible effect when it comes to content viewership that’s too early to truly gauge, the results make interesting reading, and potentially signal the writing is on the wall for free-to-air TV2 with its target audience of 18 – 49-year-olds.
Two’s popularity with all New Zealanders 15+ showed a continued decline from 27% in 2014 to 14% in 2020. More telling is that from 2018 when the survey was last conducted to now, The channel’s popularity declined by 7%, its biggest drop for the two-year periods across which the surveys have been conducted since 2014.
The research indicates that 2020 is the crossover point between traditional media and digital media for attracting the biggest daily audiences of New Zealanders overall with YouTube video now the most popular site, station or channel. But for 15 – 39-year-olds, a large part of Two’s audience, that crossover point occurred in 2018 or earlier.
Exacerbating the problem for Two is the increased adoption of digital media by those aged 40 – 59, containing the remaining chunk of the channel’s audience. This 40 – 59 age group is moving away from free-to-air TV and towards SVOD, OnDemand, and other digital options.
2020 would seem to be the cross over point for the 40 – 59 year-old shift from traditional to digital media.
On the bright side for TVNZ, OnDemand popularity is increasing, rising from 7% in 2014 to 21% in 2020.
Coincidentally, the percentage increase in popularity of OnDemand is essentially the same as the decrease in popularity of TV2 at 6 – 7%.
The younger demographics are digital natives or early digital adopters and as time passes the older age groups are utilising digital more on more. While free-to-air viewing remains stable, you’ve got to wonder how much more of a decline Two can take with its core demographic before it becomes unsustainable for TVNZ, who are contributing to Two’s audience cannibalisation with TVNZ OnDemand.
We’ll likely know come the next survey results in 2022.